Where does all this leave the J-Hey Kid? A few trade pickups last year are rated highly in 2023. Even if Heyward were to hit for more power, that might be offset by a drop in singles, or by an increase in strikeouts. Gomber is working on a two-seam, sinking fastball that he hopes will work at altitude. It took the Dodgers six games into their Cactus League schedule, but they finally achieved the ultimate spring . His arm isnt great BIS had him costing the Braves three runs in that manner but his range was so impressive that he offered center-field like defense even once he was penalized for playing in the corner outfield. The next group of comps considers only offensive production. Its not that he cant hit the ball out to all fields, but his career-best homer rate is to the pull side. Since the end of World War II, there are 42 players to have produced more than Heywards 61.9 defensive runs above average through age-25, and there are 61 players responsible for more offensive runs above average than Heywards 94.5 through his age-25 season. Check out the company Heyward kept among under-21 hitters qualifying for the batting title: If youre keeping score at home, there are 13 Hall of Famers and two future first-ballot Hall of Famers on that list of 22 names. Players who rove around the outfield will qualify at the specific outfield position where he played the most innings provided it was a minimum of 75 percent (475 innings) of total innings at the specific position. But a lot of the value Heyward accumulated last season he did in a fashion that might seem Troutian. The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. Donate to FanGraphs. That has something to do with the Angels deciding to play Trout in the corner outfield from time to time, but it also has a lot to do with Heyward having great range for a corner outfielder. . They were like, Why are you not throwing it with a [sinker] grip and try to get used to it and learn how to throw it?. Now, increasingly deprived of opportunities to pull pitches, Heyward in recent years has been going the other way more often, and 2014 saw more than 19% of his plate appearances end with him hitting the ball to the opposite field, a new career high, and a credible explanation for the plunge in distance and home runs. The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. Hes forever been a work in progress, so maybe hed change his focus on a whim. Thats 40-50 points below the NL average and ranks among the likes of Aubrey Huff and Yorvit Torrealba. But, after falling to a .227/.319/.389 triple-slash and 14 homers in 2011 while bothered by a bum shoulder, Heyward ranks 31st among outfielders (114th overall) in MockDraftCentral.coms latest ADP rankings. That search reveals the following players. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 21 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves Cubs president Jed Hoyer announced Monday the club intends to release veteran outfielder Jason Heyward from the final year of his deal at the end of the 2022 season. And its easy to identify the problem: Observers wish that Heyward would hit for more power. fangraphs.com 1d. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the 15th best OPS+ ever for a hitter who qualified for the batting title but couldnt legally buy a beer. Its not even clear this would be a good thing. Contracts matter Miller is entering his first year of arbitration while Heyward is now a FA. With an acknowledgment to the variance in sample size, we can compare the pitch locations of his 2014 against his first four big league seasons: As you might have guessed, thats bad news for Heyward, who, like many left-handed hitters, does his best work when hes able to feast on balls down and in. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
To bring this all back: There are very early signs that Jason Heyward is focusing more on the pull half of the field. Jason Heyward Los Angeles Dodgers Age: 33 Bats/Throws: L/L 6' 5" / 240 OF Quick Look 2022 Games Played: CF: 26 RF: 21 RotoWire News: Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday that Heyward. With the injury to Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will see time at shortstop while Jason Heyward and Trayce Thompson will play in center field. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
With a bad shoulder and back luck, he still held his own in 2011 FanGraphs crowdsourcing puts Heywards predicted contract at eight years and $184 million while Dave Cameron predicted a return to the Cardinals on a nine-year, $195 million contract with an opt-out after four years, making the value of the contract in excess of $200 million. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
There are two graphs below estimating the value of Heywards comps over the next ten years. by Retrosheet. Crossword; Sudoku; Crossword; Sudoku _____ About Us . Matt Carpenter was the reverse. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
Free agent Jason Heyward agreed to a $184 million, eight-year contract with the Cubs, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. According to Statcast, Walker registered a sprint speed of 28.5 feet per second with 30 feet per second being considered elite-level speed usually reserved for middle infielders and cat-quick centerfielders. He has slugged eight homers in 599 plate appearances as a big leaguer. With such an advanced plate approach and gargantuan numbers in the minors (he slashed .323/.408/.555 while rising from High-A to Triple-A as a teenager in 2009), Heyward reached the show years before most hitters do. Heyward is actually the most accomplished offensive player in the group due to being worth more than 20 runs above average on the bases, but strictly as a hitter, these are the players with similar profiles. Thats still well above-average, but chasing more junk off the plate certainly isnt a positive sign. And then well see if he wants to stay on the same course. Up for debate is precisely how good Jason Heyward has been during his career, and more importantly for whichever teams signs him this winter, how good Heyward will be moving forward. These comparable players here are not quite as accomplished as those from the WAR group above, which is to be expected given defense is not taken into account. This group also aged incredibly well. Regarding the second concern, I attempted to isolate only very good fielding outfielders. Yeah, if continued this would make him shiftable. The WAR group, which constitutes the group most closely approximating the quality of the player Jason Heyward is currently, puts Heyward on a Hall of Fame track. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
Upton, Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons, and its worth noting that Justin Upton and Heyward too, for that matter will be a free agent after next year, leaving open the possibility that the Braves could move him if the team decides to rebuild. Using a similar exercise, I found only 28 players with at least 25 fWAR and bWAR (FanGraphs WAR and Baseball Reference WAR, respectively) since the end of World War II. FanGraphs projects San Diego as the . All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Because, even if he did it from the corner outfield, Heyward was able to emulate the Angelic newcomer in a way. Others call it a slurve or even a whirlybird. The lowest member of the group, Willie Randolph, still averaged more than three wins per season. Adding in 23 steals on 26 attempts and the rest of his baserunning, Heywards 22 runs above average on offense placed him within the top quarter of qualified hitters. Oliver: .273/.367/.475, 19 HR While hes never going to be a big stolen base threat, hes a quality athlete for a power forward-sized corner outfielder. Again, the talent is too much to ignore, and the increased contact and stolen bases are encouraging signs for a guy who still has at least a season or two to go before truly entering what should be the peak years of his career. Teams should, and likely do, look at adding years to a contract as spreading out money over a longer time period rather than seeking an extra year of value. Its ever so early, but it seems like he could be working on that. . Over 55 combined seasons, the group averaged five wins per season. I looked for outfielders from 1960 to 2007 who produced defensive runs above average (which includes the positional adjustment) within 20 runs of Heywards 61.9 runs above average mark. Im sure you dont think about ground-ball pull rate very often, but I like it as an indicator of change. Contact David at
[email protected] and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. From BIS, Heyward had the highest range numbers in the business. Jason Heyward. According to Fangraphs, during his first six seasons, Jason Heyward was "worth" $198.1 million. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors
Jason Hayward signed an 8-year/$184,000,000 contract with the Chicago Cubs, which includes a $20,000,000 signing bonus, $184,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $23,000,000. I used ten-year figures in this analysis, but moving to an eight- or nine-year contract would not significantly change the values, as the bulk of all production is recorded in the early part of the contract. On Friday, the Cubs won the bidding for Jason Heyward, convincing the outfielder to come to Chicago despite offers for more guaranteed money from the Nationals, the Cardinals, and reportedly. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. That was awesome, Kapler said. Weve seen Heyward hit the ball out to right, and weve seen him hit the ball out to left. Aggravating as it might be, we dont know the answers to those questions. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Heywards .113 ISO was no less than 71 points below his career mark entering this year, he slugged just .384 and notched only 58 RBIs, despite making about one-third of his plate appearances as the fifth hitter in the Braves order. Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward . Heyward has been an above average offensive player, incredible on defense, and heading into free agency a few months after turning 26 years old, provides few realistic players for comparison. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. There are few who doubt that, after finishing up his sixth season in Major League Baseball, Jason Heyward is a good player. Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver dont know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year; they just see a young guy who struggled after a fantastic rookie year. How much will he be worth? My favorite minor story line this season is that the Cubs are paying about $40 million to replace Heyward with Bellinger, and the Dodgers are paying about $0 to replace Bellinger with Heyward. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors
Are the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders the result of his shoulder ailment, or normal growing pains for a player who wont turn 22 until August? The grounders are just about all pulled. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. Depending on ones point of view, it was an effort that was either an improvement in his development as a still-young hitter or a disturbing blight on his future value. The team appears content to begin the season with Trayce Thompson as the starter. UZRs range component agrees. News; Wikipedia: . When we know nothing else about Jason Heyward except the way he hits singles, doubles, triples, home runs and walks without regard for his offensive contributions on the basepaths or his defense, his comps would be worth $159 million. Sadly, the only skill that Heyward hasnt displayed during his bright, brief career is health. Chicago Cubs. Last season, Oviedos fastball had five fewer inches of rise or more sink than four-seam fastballs at similar velocities. The group also has five players at the top who were tremendous successes. The Cubs released Heyward. It really had good numbers on the computer. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. 1 day ago. Heyward managed to nab nine bases in 11 tries last year, and Bill James projects hell have 14 SB in 2012. Now, Heyward has an extended history of making various adjustments underneath, he hasnt been that static. Heywards year wasnt in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. The Chicago Cubs already boasted one of the best young . That is a major boost for lefty pull hitters like Soto (who hit 38.1 percent of his balls in play to the right field side last season, per Fangraphs). Jason Heyward, who was instrumental in the lore of the infamous Game 7 rain delay, was once the thorn in the side of fans looking for a scapegoat to blame for the club's lack of spending. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. $8? Putting everything together, we still have not placed a value on those wins. The numbers may seem outrageous, but MLB revenues have been rising at very high rates, and there is so rarely a player of Heywards caliber and age that the market will likely have a difficult time finding a consensus. by Retrosheet. When Heyward is Ellsburys age, he will have just finished Year Six, or might have already opted out for another big contract. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. rates Jason Heyward as the 28th best fantasy outfielder. If thats something hes really doing, its probably because hes trying to up his power output. That Aaron Boone batting order is plugged into the Lineup . Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. ESPN, FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline . All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. Which can be overcome, but only by also hitting fewer grounders. Signup . Just how healthy is Heyward? Simply put, players who dominate the competition at such a young age often end up in Cooperstown, not benched in favor of Jose Constanza. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors
The first graph is conservative, beginning the estimation of a cost of a win at $7 million with inflation set at five percent per year (although salaries have been rising at a rate greater than that amount in recent seasons and are up about 50% from half a dozen seasons ago). Double-digit steals is a nice perk for a guy with potentially elite OBP and power numbers. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors
and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. This figure is not a conclusory number or necessarily the best way for projections, but simply another method in the attempt to find a likely value for Jason Heyward. This spring, Heyward has hit 18 flies and liners, and hes sent two of them toward left. Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will play shortstop for now. Jason Alias Heyward (born August 9, 1989), nicknamed " J-Hey " is an American professional baseball right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. As expected, their value on defense drops over the next ten years, but a curious thing has happened to their offensive numbers simultaneously. 3 outfielder who has yet to prove hes a reliable high-end fantasy option. But even so, it seems like he has endured some bad luck on balls put in play. Contact David at
[email protected] and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. Obviously, Heyward is nowhere near as good as Rodriguez was then, but the argument for blowing the budget to sign him is a similar one. by Handedness, Trying to Put a Value on Jason Heyward in Free Agency, Effectively Wild Episode 761: An Offseason Friday Gallimaufry, The Best of FanGraphs: November 2-6, 2015. Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heywards wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the leagues hitters. While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. The Royals, Billy Butler, and Young Pitching. Gallo got the upper hand on the Red Sox in his second inning at-bat, drawing a walk to nullify Boston's shift. I think the Bogaerts and Carpenter examples are meant to show that, while ground ball pull rate might not seem to be related to power at all (as you say, ground balls are not that great usually), Jeff thinks of it as an indicator of change.. Swinging at more off-the-plate pitches, hitting the ball up the elevator shaft, smacking ground balls like a slap-hitting middle infielder none of these are good things. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
Apparently the Dodgers will do anything to keep James Outman on the farm. Prior to the . Age is the decisive factor here. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and thats not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. Heyward made just one out on an attempted advance in 19 tries. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
Heywards value also wasnt helped by a Braves lineup that finished among baseballs worst in wOBA and runs scored, and if the Braves were to move Evan Gattis this winter to make room for Christian Bethancourt, the lineup likely would only be weaker in 2015. Games. Our premise is that their bad (or A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. Since Heyward is also the tallest of the four young outfielders at six-foot-five, we have reason to be worried about how long this can hold up for him. The most important years are likely to be those at the beginning, in which the team hopes to underpay their player. It happens. The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time establishing himself as a premier outfielder Andrew Heaney is fine with throwing meatballs. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. The 2023 series on team offense continues with the New York Yankees. So what is his value in an auction re-draft league? Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. At the very least, we should expect Heywards average over the rest of the season to climb considerably. Look at Jason Heyward. But the power was largely absent. He flew out to center field in his other at-bat in Friday's game. He looked like a pitcher.. Heywards infield hit rate is three percent, which is in the same range as David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and Billy Butler, guys whose times to first base are measured with sun dials instead of stop watches. Some call it a sweeper. Id imagine all those infield popups are at least partly due to his bum shoulder. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. Because it means Wheeler is now throwing a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a cutter, a tight slider, a bigger slider (aka the sweeper), a curveball and, occasionally, a changeup. And he continued to hit far too many ground balls (nearly 54 percent of the time he put it in play), limiting his power output (.162 ISO). Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. As to the first, this is not the article to convince someone about advanced defensive metrics, but his highlight-reel catches, mutiple Gold Gloves and three Fielding Bible awards seem to indicate there is some consensus from all viewpoints on the excellence of Heyward as a fielder. Just to be clear, this isnt a matter of Heyward trading fly balls for line drives; his batted ball distribution, including his GB/FB rate, has stayed remarkably steady over the past three seasons, a period that includes his 2012 campaign in which he bashed a career-high 27 home runs. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors
2022 Updated In-Season Projections As such, its hard to decide what to make of Heywards 2014 season, in which he finished 34th among outfielders in Zach Sanders rankings, as he made strides as a contact hitter while taking a step back in the power department.